Financial outlook
2026 outlook
ALK expects to continue its trajectory of double-digit revenue growth in 2026, while the EBIT margin is planned to remain on par with ALK’s long-term earnings ambitions.
(Revenue growth rates are stated as organic growth in local currencies, unless otherwise indicated)
Revenue is expected to grow by 11-15% organically in local currencies, based on growth across all sales regions and product groups.
The EBIT margin is expected at around 25%, consistent with ALK’s long-term earnings ambitions, as additional funds will be allocated to initiatives to bolster long-term growth. The outlook is based on the following main assumptions:
Revenue
Growth will predominantly be volume-driven, as ALK expects to treat more patients with AIT and anaphylaxis products. The lower end of the revenue range reflects a potential negative impact of price and rebate adjustments, mainly driven by European authorities. The upper end of the range assumes stable price and rebate conditions as well as potential upsides related to tablet and anaphylaxis sales.
Tablet sales are expected to grow by double digits across sales regions. Growth will be fuelled by the continued expansion of prescriber and patient bases with children and adolescents projected to account for a higher share of sales.
SCIT/SLIT drops sales are projected to grow by single digits, driven by higher SCIT volumes to China, modest volume growth in Europe (SCIT and SLIT drops), and improved SCIT pricing in North America.
Sales of Anaphylaxis & other products are projected to grow by double digits, led by the commercialisation of neffy®. Sales of diagnostics and life science products are also expected to contribute positively.
As usual, the timing of product shipments to China and Japan may lead to quarterly fluctuations in revenue.
Margins and costs
After the extraordinary margin improvements in 2025, the gross margin is expected to decrease slightly in 2026, although the gross profit is expected to increase. The underlying margin will benefit from favourable volume/mix changes, especially higher tablet sales in Europe, but this factor will be offset by growth in partner-related revenue at lower margins, primarily product shipments to Japan and China, as well as neffy® sales. Production efficiencies, reduced scrapping, and procurement savings are expected to largely compensate for inflationary pressure on the gross margin.
Capacity costs are projected to increase but their ratio to revenue is expected to remain largely unchanged as ALK reinvests the benefits of increased scale into key strategic growth opportunities. R&D expenses are planned to increase in support of pre-clinical and clinical programmes but remain at around 10% of revenue. Sales and marketing expenses are expected to increase in support of market-building activities for particularly neffy® and tablets for children, while administrative expenses are planned to decrease slightly.
Other assumptions
- The outlook is based on ALK’s current portfolio and does not include revenue from and/or payments to new partnerships, in-licensing activities, or acquisitions.
- Potential changes to international tariff agreements are not expected to materially impact growth or earnings due to ALK’s current geographical footprint.
- Free cash flow is expected to be positive at DKK 800-1,000 million representing a decrease compared to last year, solely due to the upfront payment from ALK’s Chinese partner GenSci in 2025. CAPEX is projected at around DKK 500 million, as ALK expands apacity for tablet production, upgrades legacy production, and strengthens the supply chain for anaphylaxis. The build-up of inventories is broadly assumed in line with revenue growth. Tax payments are expected to be higher than in 2025 as old tax losses now have been utilised.
- No non-recurring costs for optimisation and prioritisation initiatives are planned.
- The outlook is based on current exchange rates, resulting in a negative impact of 1% on reported revenue and an immaterial impact on EBIT.
Forward-looking statements
The report contains forward-looking statements, including forecasts of future revenue, operating profit, and cash flows as well as expected business-related events. Such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, as various factors, some of which are outside ALK's control, may cause actual results and performance to differ materially from the forecasts made. Such factors include, but are not limited to, consequences of pandemics, general economic and business-related conditions including legal issues, uncertainty relating to demand, pricing, reimbursement rules, partners’ plans and forecasts, fluctuations in exchange rates, competitive factors, reliance on suppliers, and tariffs. Additional factors include the risks associated with the sourcing and manufacturing of ALK’s products, as well as the potential for side effects from the use of ALK’s products, as allergy immunotherapy may be associated with allergic reactions of differing extent, duration, and severity.
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